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Wagner Daily Lite – Gas ETF ($UGA) Setting Up for a Breakout Buy

March 23, 2012

NYSE Posts Second Consecutive Distribution Day ($UGA) ($XLI) – The Wagner Daily


Stocks closed lower across the board on Thursday on mixed trade. All five major indices closed in the red. The S&P MidCap 400 led the decline as it slid 1.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.0%, while the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq slid 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Only twenty of the 103 sectors that we cover finished up on the day and only one sector closed more than one percent higher. The weakest sectors included coal, transportation, insurance and non ferrous metals.


Market internals once again ended the day mixed. Traded quickened on the NYSE by 6.8% but fell on the Nasdaq by 2.0%. Declining volume overpowered advancing volume on the NYSE by a ratio of 5.8 to 1. The damage was not as bad on the Nasdaq as declining volume topped advancing volume by just over 2 to 1. For the second time in as many days, the NYSE fell under distribution. However, the Nasdaq once again escaped a distribution day due to the light volume on the technology rich index.


Yesterday, on a significant uptick in volume, the S&P Select Industrial SPDR Fund (XLI) formed a reversal candle as it undercut support of the 50-day MA. A move above yesterday’s high of $37.25 could present a buy entry trigger for XLI. We will be monitoring this setup closely for a possible long entry.


Earlier this week we stated that UGA was showing relative strength as it consolidated along its 20-day EMA. Further we noted that UGA was setting a sequence of higher lows during this consolidation. It is also noteworthy that UGA has been consolidating as volume is contracting. This is generally considered a bullish signal. Yesterday, UGA once again tested and held support at its 20-day EMA. We like the price action and relative strength in this ETF and are therefore placing it on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist section of the newsletter.

The commentary above is a partial excerpt from The Wagner Daily, our nightly stock and ETF swing trading newsletter. Subscribing members additionally receive specific entry and exit prices for all swing trade setups, more technical market commentary, annotated ETF and stock charts,and access to our Live Trading Room. Click here to become a member for less than $2 per day (based on annual subscription). Your full satisfaction is guaranteed.

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